Well… My crystal ball has been right and wrong in following the ongoing soap opera that is the American Economy.
With talk of (at least partial) nationalization of BofA and Citi, I think I was misguided in my assesment of their strength. My logic was that financially strapped organizations wouldn’t be acquiring large companies who would only make the cash situation worse – I was apparently wrong. I also understated my swag on the size of the eventual bail out by about 100% as well, although it could come down significantly unless they natioanalize AIG, BofA and/or Citi.
I don’t think I put it in a prior post, but I have a mental threashold of 12% unemployment to trigger the word, “depression”. It was recently announced that California is at 10% – painfully close. My portfolio of strong stocks has taken a beating in the last couple weeks that I didn’t think possible.
We’ll see where it goes.
– John
