Mar 032009

Well… My crystal ball has been right and wrong in following the ongoing soap opera that is the American Economy.

With talk of (at least partial) nationalization of BofA and Citi, I think I was misguided in my assesment of their strength. My logic was that financially strapped organizations wouldn’t be acquiring large companies who would only make the cash situation worse – I was apparently wrong. I also understated my swag on the size of the eventual bail out by about 100% as well, although it could come down significantly unless they natioanalize AIG, BofA and/or Citi.

I don’t think I put it in a prior post, but I have a mental threashold of 12% unemployment to trigger the word, “depression”.  It was recently announced that California is at 10% – painfully close.  My portfolio of strong stocks has taken a beating in the last couple weeks that I didn’t think possible.

We’ll see where it goes.

— John